New Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Issued as Peak Season Looms—Is Your Property Prepared?

Thus far, the Atlantic hurricane season has been fairly quiet. 

Heading into September, only three tropical storms have formed, with the first system, Tropical Storm Arthur, causing the most damage to date. 

Because of this, forecasters are downgrading their initial predictions for the season, pulling back on the estimated amount of storms that could affect the Southern and Eastern parts of the U.S.

But with a super El Niño still churning away, homeowners shouldn’t get too comfortable, no matter where they live.

Atlantic hurricane forecast changes ahead of peak season

The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from the first of June through the end of November, with August through October being the months that see the most activity. 

AccuWeather has been diligently watching the weather patterns change and has officially pivoted their initial forecast for the season. Their team now forecasts eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. 

This is lower than the initial forecast issued last spring, which called for 11-16 named storms.

So, what changed? The one thing every meteorologist has been talking about all year:  El Niño.

“The reason for this assessment is the increasing chances of a record-strong Super El Niño developing,” says AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

The weather community agrees that this year’s El Niño is poised to become one of the strongest in history, and its effects are already being felt. 

For example, since the El Niño is a weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii has been already had to contend with one major hurricane-level storm, Hurricane LaLa, this summer—and two more tropical storm systems are in the forecast before August ends. 

However,  the El Niño still impacts the Atlantic hurricane season as well, with AccuWeather pointing to the El Niño’s ability to create disruptive winds, known as wind shear, that can make it “hard for storms to develop and strengthen.”

But the reality is, no one is out of the woods yet. 

"That gives us greater confidence in lowering the total number of named storms, but it does not eliminate the risk of a damaging hurricane strike in the United States," DaSilva adds. 

"It only takes one storm to define a hurricane season."

Another year without a hurricane landfall creating a false sense of security

The fact that no major hurricane has developed by now is unheard of. 

It follows last year’s equally unusual Atlantic hurricane season, when several powerful storms developed but no hurricanes made landfall in the United States.

But even then, but mid-August, homeowners in the South were contending with Hurricane Erin, a Category 5 storm, off the coast.

The lack of hurricane activity is having a dual effect on homeowners typically in the line of fire. 

For example, the 2024 hurricane season hit Florida hard, causing catastrophic damage and forcing many homeowners to flee the state—and far fewer interested buyers back to it. 

However, new research has shown a resurgence of interest in Florida, with some experts pointing to the quiet 2025 season as a reason buyers showed renewed interest. 

But the reality is, according to meteorologists, a quiet season doesn't mean a less destructive one. 

“While those atmospheric conditions can reduce the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes, they do not eliminate the threat to the United States,” DaSilva adds. “Exceptionally warm waters near part of the U.S. coastline can provide fuel for tropical systems that develop close to land, raising concerns about rapid intensification and leaving people and businesses with less time to prepare.”

Because of this, homeowners along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should remain vigilant, and not rest on their laurels. 

Experts agree that prepping your home and being proactive before a storm hits is the best defense in protecting your property from a hurricane. 

That includes inspecting your roof and windows to make sure they are secured and sealed, creating a hurricane emergency kit well in advance to avoid missing out on essentials at the store, and making sure your flood insurance and homeowners insurance policies are up to date.