As the Northeast descends into arctic temperatures, experts agree that kicking up the heat is a good plan of action—but not too high!
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook reveals how the current Super El Nino conditions will likely influence the upcoming winter months (December 2026 to February 2027).
The good new is that warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across the northern U.S, including parts of New England and the Pacific Northwest.
That said, the shift in storm patterns from the norm can boost snowfall in other regions by delivering both the moisture and cold air needed for snow, and areas of the Intermountain West, Southwest, and Central U.S. could see above-average snow totals this season.
Regardless of where you live, with energy prices being skyhigh, it's important to know how to set your thermostat to stay warm in these colder months.
After all, it can be difficult to balance comfort and energy efficiency in your home while still preventing frozen pipes or strain on your system.
The answer depends on your situation but most HVAC experts agree that 68 F is the sweet spot.
How to set your thermostat
During below-freezing weather, David Watkins, CEO of Watkins Heating & Cooling in Dayton, OH, directs homeowners to Energy Star’s guidance—set the thermostat as low as comfortably possible.
“This is typically around 68°F while awake and at home, then about 3 to 8 degrees lower when sleeping or away—usually around 65°F,” explains Watkins.
Ultimately, however, Watkins believes you should turn your thermostat to whatever you consider comfortable and understand the cost tradeoff.
“As a rule of thumb, raising the thermostat by 1 degree throughout winter can increase heating costs by around 3 to 5 percent, which translates to roughly $50 to $100 over the course of a winter season,” says Watkins.
TJ Laury, president at Ben’s ProServ in Vineland, NJ, agrees with Watkins on the 68 F number but recommends you lower your thermostat more dramatically if you’re going to be away for several days.
“Whatever you do, however, make sure it never dips below 55 F, or your pipes might freeze,” says Laury.
Dan Cronen, HVAC Expert at SupplyHouse.com, believes there’s no magic number for your thermostat. He suggests you ignore the number and ask yourself, “Am I comfortable?” If the answer is, “No, I’m cold”, turn it up! If the answer is, “No, I’m hot”, turn it down.
If you are comfortable, forget about it and let the thermostat do its job.
Just keep in mind that if it’s really cold out, your system is going to have to work harder to keep you comfortable and that means it will run more and cost more— that’s just basic physics.
“The only way to save is to turn the heat down at the cost of your comfort. It comes down to your personal comfort versus cold tolerance, because there’s no cheating physics,” explains Cronen.
Dirty air conditioning unit cover in leaves during autumn needs cleaning before winter. (JJ Gouin/Adobe Stock) Winter HVAC maintenance tips from the pros
There are a number of steps you can take to keep your HVAC system efficient and functional this winter and beyond. Here’s what the pros recommend:
Consider HVAC zoning
HVAC zoning allows different areas of the home to be heated independently.
“By only heating occupied spaces, you can reduce energy waste and improve overall comfort,” says Michael Morey, digital product management leader at Trane in Houston.
Change filters
According to Laury, a clean filter is an effective yet ridiculously easy way to keep your HVAC system in good condition. Old crusty ones can slow down your heat or cause it to shut down altogether.
“Change your air filter every 30 to 90 days,” explains Laury.
Seal drafts
Sealing drafts around windows and doors is another major opportunity in winter, as these cold air leaks force a heating system to run longer.
“Drafts also leak humidity, making homes feel even colder and drier than the thermostat temperature,” explains Watkins.
Freezing, windy weather is often the best time to identify drafts, because you can feel them in places you might never notice when it’s warm outside.
Schedule an HVAC tune-up
Ask an HVAC pro to come to your home and test your system—ideally before the freezing temps hit. They may be able to spot issues that are invisible to the naked eye and offer recommendations for repairs before more expensive ones are needed.