The coming week brings a steady stream of new reports from the Realtor.com economics team, as well as a number of key indicators.
The coming week brings a steady stream of new reports from the Realtor.com economics team, as well as a number of key indicators for the housing market.
On Monday, senior economist Anthony Smith published the October Luxury Report, which looks at pockets of growth where luxury prices are still rising.
On Tuesday, ahead of Veterans Day, we honor America’s military service members and veterans with a report on Veterans Affairs loans. Senior economist Jiayi Xu explores what they are and how they help with homeownership.
On Wednesday, senior economist Hannah Jones examines how the lock-in effect has evolved and where today’s homeowners with a mortgage face larger or smaller payment shocks if they are thinking about moving.
On Thursday, Hannah is back to examine what the first full week of November data reveals about the housing market, and on Friday, Hannah publishes the October Hottest Markets report, which identifies the markets where homes are moving the fastest and getting the most attention from online shoppers.
Turning to the economic indicators that will be released, we’ll see the consumer price index reading on inflation as well as mortgage rates and existing-home sales.
Inflation has run above the Fed’s target, 2% growth in headline PCE, for 5.5 years, and it’s clear from exit polls that the cost of living was very much on the mind of voters in last week’s election.
This week, we’ll see the first inflation reading for October from the consumer price index, which was up sharply in September largely due to higher energy prices. I’m expecting the annual inflation reading to be similarly high in October even if the month-to-month momentum wanes a bit.
Although inflation remains elevated, mortgage rates could continue to ebb. Last week the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, according to Freddie Mac, dropped to 7.18% as the 10-year hovered near 4.9%.
Late in the week, the 10-year yield dropped further as uncertainty over artificial intelligence investments led to a pullback in stocks. Even if the 10-year were to remain at 4.9%, it has adjusted faster than mortgage rates, so I think there is room for spread compression that could help nudge rates lower, which will help late-season home shoppers.
The last indicator of the week is existing-home sales data from the National Association of Realtors®. That October home sales data is likely to be very disappointing.
Mortgage rates rose sharply in the month, and NAR’s pending home sales hit a series record low in September, while Realtor.com housing data suggests that the buyer pullback continued into October. I’m watching to see if the pullback is sufficient to push months supply even higher.
For full reports, the Market Clock, and raw housing data, visit realtor.com/research.